BANGKOK: The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) has revised its forecast for this year’s economic growth to 3.5%, down by 0.1%, due to a decrease in international tourism revenues and a slowdown in exports, said Director-General Pornchai Thiraveja.
The Fiscal Policy Office revised its forecast for this year’s economic growth to 3.5%, down by 0.1%, due to a decrease of international tourism revenues and a slowdown in exports. Photo: Bangkok Post
He said during a press conference on the Thai economic outlook for 2023 that the economy will expand by 3.5%, down from the previous forecast of 3.6% in April, mainly due to lower estimated revenue from foreign tourists, reports the Bangkok Post.
As of July, revenue from foreign tourists is expected to be B1.25 trillion this year, down from the previous forecast of B1.3trn in April, due to lower spending per trip per tourist, particularly Malaysian visitors when compared with Chinese travellers.
As of June, 12.9 million foreign tourists had entered Thailand, with the annual target set at 29.5mn.
As for the country’s export value in 2023, it is expected to contract by 0.8% this year, compared with an estimated contraction of 0.5% in April, attributed to an economic slowdown among Thailand’s 15 key trading partners, which are expected to expand by 2.8%, compared with 3.4% last year.
With the budget for 2024 expected to be delayed by up to six months, this would affect the country’s GDP this year by 0.05%, Mr Pornchai said.
However, if the 2024 Budget Expenditure Act cannot become effective in time for the start of the 2024 fiscal year on Oct 1, the previous year’s expenditure budget could be used for the time being, including accrued investment expenditure of B150 billion, which is expected to be disbursed in fiscal 2024 by no more than B1.3bn.
The disbursement of the investment budget at the end of fiscal 2023 (Sept 30, 2023) is expected to be at B460bn, accounting for 74% of the total investment budget, while in fiscal 2024 it is expected to be B480bn, accounting for 68% of the total investment budget.
Furthermore, revolving funds could also be allocated to help vulnerable groups in the country, particularly farmers who are being affected by the El Niño phenomenon, which would help increase the money in circulation.
Mr Pornchai added that if there were more Chinese tourists visiting Thailand in the second half of this year, it would help support the economy as outbound Chinese travellers have regained momentum, reflected by an increase in the number and frequency of flights between China and Thailand.
The Dubai crude oil price is expected to be at US$79 per barrel, down from last year’s average of $95.4, attributed to China’s deflation and global economic uncertainty.
Source: The Phuket News
